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You Need To Be In It To Win It

31
May

Betting on baseball games is one of the easier or let’s say less frustrating sports to wager on. With 162 games in a season, baseball offers numerous statistics, trends and betting angles that you will not develop as easily in football or basketball.

The first thing you need to understand about placing a wager on baseball is the money line. Unlike football and basketball whose betting lines are set with a point spread, baseball mainly uses a money line. The difference is with a point spread bet it does not matter which team wins the game but only which team covers the spread. Many times a team will win the game but not win by enough points to cover the point spread. This is very frustrating especially when your team fails to play defense towards the end of the game allowing the opposition to easily score as it will end the game quicker and not jeopardize their victory. In Baseball the line is calculated with a money line so you only have to win the game to cash your ticket. The drawback is the payout differs according to the money line price but a win is a win. Now let it be known that if you really like point spreads most sports books do offer a run line bet which is similar to the point spread.

Pitching, baseball handicapping is primarily based on pitching. You will notice this as the line between two teams will change according to the starting pitching. As you may guess, the popular and well known pitchers come at a higher price than the not so popular pitchers. The secret here is that many times when an All Star pitcher takes the mound the price is high even if he is having a poor season. This is because the general betting public will bet his team solely due his well know name as he gets the start. Many of general betting public will not bother to analyze the most current statistics this driving up the price on the All Star pitcher. In many cases the lesser known pitcher will be having a better season and be priced for a nice payout simply because he not as popular to the general betting public.

Keep in mind that a sports books main objective is get equal betting dollars on both teams that are to play each other. A sports book manager may believe that one team will beat the other team by 10 points but they set the line at a 5 point spread so that the general betting public will be split down the middle. Many times the general betting public’s conception is faulty and the line needs to account for that.

Totals in baseball are just like in football or basketball. You simply bet whether the game will go over or under the number posted for the total. You need to realize that in total bets the number is heavily based on the starting pitching. Therefore when you bet a baseball total the starting pitchers are listed by name on your ticket. This mean they must take the start or you bet is returned for a refund. By take the start they must each make the first pitch of the first inning. However, it is rare there is a pitching change that close to game start. Most baseball lines are posted the morning of the game after pitching changes have been made but stuff does happen.

Any time you make a baseball bet you can request to have the pitchers listed on your ticket. This is done if you are betting a side strictly because of the starting pitcher. If for some reason that pitcher is rescheduled for any reason you bet is voided. Many people do not realize this and think the ticket in action.

In order to win consistently in baseball you need to follow a baseball betting strategy.


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Category : Gambling | Blog
30
May

If you ever wagered on a baseball game you probably have discovered that it is one of the more profitable sports to bet on. Unfortunately, many are not able to see this and rather bet on one of the other sports where they believe winning is more likely.

No doubt, it takes a lot of time to handicap the sport of baseball. With 162 games in a season and games played daily you need to pay close attention. There are numerous team, individual and ballpark statistics that constantly need to be analyzed. Following statistics as part of a handicapping system is a vital process in covering your baseball picks. Here are a few suggestions to help eliminate some unnecessary handicapping and shorten your work load.

It is good idea to avoid betting on any baseball team that is favorite, that is has a price greater than -1.50, don’t even look at this teams. The philosophy on this is that routinely betting on teams of -1.50 or means that you will have to cover 3 out 4 bets to have any chance to turn a winning profit. With high prices like this one loss feels two loses maybe even like three loses. If all you like are high priced favorites then you want to simply parlay the teams in groups of two. A Parlay on the two favorites at least offers a valuable return.

Many handicappers like to play the run line when betting baseball. This is risky so make sure to avoid betting on a home favorite with the run line. The reason here is the home team needs to win by 2 or more runs to win on the run line. We all know the home team if ahead in the middle of the 9th inning does not have to bat to complete the inning the game is simply over now. If the game is tied at the bottom of the 9th inning as soon the home team scores one run the game is over regardless how many outs there are. Unless there is a home run with men on base you have little chance to cover this bet. That lack of batting appearance can work against you.

Baseball is a game of streaks. If a team wins or losses 3 games in a row it is considered to be streak. You want to avoid betting against a team that is currently in a streak. Does not matter, a winning streak or losing streak. Either bet within the streak or avoid the action all together. I like to bet on the streak until it ends that is as long as the betting price is not too high.

At last, either avoid or bet against a pitcher that is making his major league debut. This is a huge psychological battle the first time starter is going through. We know the physical battle part but getting your first start puts the pitcher in a risky position as they are being battle tested for the first time.

If you find yourself only interested in betting on teams with high prices (greater than -1.50) then consider putting them in a 2 team parlay or a 3 team round robin betting the 2 and 3 options. I prefer not to bet the run line laying the 1.5 runs. The main reason I favor betting on baseball is because of the money line where I only have to outright win the game to cash my ticket. I hate backdoor covers!


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Category : Gambling | Blog
28
May

It is still early in the 2010 season but we have had a full month of games. Looking back at the last 30 days I can see some trends have flourished. Now a good baseball handicapper is always looking for a trend or streak along with the usual baseball statistics to make an accurate prediction. Here is what I see so far.

I am always looking at betting totals and I see a few worth while trends in full swing. Let’s take a look at the Arizona Diamondbacks. Now this team can score runs. Out of their first 24 games this season, 17 games have gone over the total number making their record on over plays 17-6-1. That is 74% of their games have gone over. This record leads all baseball teams right now.

Let’s break that down some more. The Diamondback while at home, 8 of 12 games have gone over the total or 67%. A little less of a percentage than the stat on all games played but still good enough for second place in all of baseball. On the road as a visitor the Diamondbacks lead baseball with 9-2-1 record against the total number. That is an amazing 82% of the time the runs goes over while playing on the road.

We can break it down even further. The Diamondbacks versus right handed starting pitcher are 12-6 or 67% over the total for all games played. Now it gets better, against a starting left handed pitcher the record is 5-0-1 or 100% over the total number. The Diamondback are definitely a team that is prone to go over the total regardless who and where they play. However, the chances are greatest of going over when playing on the road versus a starting left handed pitcher. This based on all their games played up to May 2, 2010.

The Diamondback just finished a series with the Cubs at Wrigley Field and now are heading to Houston to play the Astros. Looking at the Astros starting pitchers, I can see Wandy Rodriguez is a left handed pitcher. Rodriguez is currently 1-4 over the total number. You see that 1-4 mark and think well Rodriguez pitches low scoring games. Not necessarily true, in his first two starts his team the Astros scored zero runs. Out of all five of his starts the Astros only scored 9 runs all while they allowed 22 runs in those 5 starts. Astros just are not hitting the ball right now and the Diamondbacks are hitting very well.

The Astros while playing at home are 6-8-1 against the total or 43%. The average total runs scored in Astros home games is 8.5 and the average runs score in Diamondbacks road games is 12.8. Needless to say I am anticipating the line posted on the total this week when Wandy Rodriquez gets the start. Minute Maid Park in Houston typical is a pitchers ballpark and the total scores are on the low side. So, I am only interested in betting the total over in this series when Rodriguez, a left handed pitcher gets the start. According the Astros website, Rodriquez is the probable starting pitcher, for Thursdays May 6th match up with the Diamondbacks


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Category : Advice | Blog
28
May

Baseball is full of statistics and trends. I as fan of the games and baseball handicapper am always looking for those trends that will give me edge when making my predictions. Looks like I have a trend that calls my attention as games this week are played.

Here we are in the beginning of May 2010. We have had a full month of baseball and some great statistics and trends have developed. Today I am looking under the total plays. Most people when looking at totals just glance at the average runs to two score and take an average of that. Well you really miss out on a lot with that lazy technique.

I am going examine two teams. The teams are the Minnesota Twins and the Seattle Mariners. What I am looking is to determine if an angle or trends exists in betting the total on any of these teams. At first glance, and too many who don’t dig into the stats deep enough there is no angle or trend.

However we need to dig deeper. Looking at all games played this season that have gone under the total. The Mariners are 9-14-1 or 61% under against the total number. The Twins come in at 9-12-3 or 57% under against the total number.

After digger deeper into the stats we now see things start to improve. The Mariners who we said previously were 9-14-1 or 61% under against the total number, improve as we focus on home games played in Seattle. Now we see the Mariners are 3-8 or 73% under against the total number. That’s improvement of 12% but it gets better. Let’s compare the difference in facing a right handed to a left handed starting pitcher. The Mariners against a right handed starting pitcher are 8-9 or 53%. Against a left handed starter the Mariners now are 1-5-1 or 83%. Looks like we have found a great angle here. The Mariners playing at home against a starting left handed pitcher is very likely to go under the total. This week the Mariners host the Tampa Bay Rays then the Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim.

The Twins as we said earlier are 9-12-3 or 57% under against the total number all games played this season. The Twins, when playing at home, are 3-4-2 or once again 57% under against the total. The Twins, when playing on the road are 6-8-1 or 57% under against the total just as before. The Twins versus a staring right handed pitcher are 8-7-3 or 47% under against the total. However put the Twins versus a left handed pitcher you find they are 1-5-1 or 83% under against the total. As you can see the Twins are 47%-57% chance going under the total except when facing a lefty. All off sudden the under play has comes in at 83%. Something to consider this week at the Twins face the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles.

Here are two examples of betting the total just does not mean looking at the overall over and under stats. You need to break in down to more specific conditions and wait until those conditions appear again.


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Category : Gambling | Blog
27
May

What makes someone the best baseball handicapper? With so many claiming that they are the best baseball handicapper around how does one really know who is.

Just what is a baseball handicapper? According to Wikipedia: Baseball Handicapping is the practice of assigning advantage through scoring compensation or other advantage given to different contestants to equalize the chances of winning. Let’s make it simple and say that a baseball handicapper is a person that analyzes two baseball teams and attempt to picks the winner.

The fact is anyone can claim to be a baseball handicapper. There is no license or certification required. You just start analyzing ball games and select your winners. There is no government rating nor is there any real tracking system. Part of being a good handicapper is promoting yourself as one. That is the easy part just about all handicappers claim to be the best.

Now you are probably reading this article because you want to know who is best. My feelings on this are not one individual can be giving that title. Baseball handicapping is not all based on skill. It is better to be lucky than be good, right. Luck has a lot to do with it. Don’t confuse being lucky for being good.

I would define the best baseball handicapper a one who is truly knowledgeable on the sports. They must be up to date with all trades, injuries, trends and current statistics. Then there are the side variable such as weather conditions, disputes among the players sand mental state of the players. A good handicapper will take all this information and plug into their handicapping formula.

Now a proven winning formula is mandatory. To handicap baseball properly you need to follow a formula. This formula must be battle tested. Anyone can create a formula and start using it, but it has to be tested. The only way to test a formula is to use through an entire baseball season. Baseball season is very long and there are many ups and downs for every team. You might have a nice run for a week, start thinking you have the best system in the world then lose the next 10 games. The only way to fully grade a handicappers picks is over the entire season.

The best baseball handicappers in one who thoroughly follows the game, uses a proven system along with all those miscellaneous variables to determine their selections. A handicapper that just picks games without close examination is one that I would avoid. Remember to distinguish the difference between just lucky and picking the right side. Many get lucky but luck only happens occasional. I am a true believe that anyone can be the best baseball handicapper if they so desire. Follow the game, use a proven baseball betting formula, there are many available. Be consistent with your bets and use proper money management and you will the best baseball handicapper.


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Category : Gambling | Blog