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The Grand National weights

Today’s the day when the countdown to the 2009 John Smith’s Grand National really begins with the unveiling of the weights. Our man on the inside, John Lloyds, will keep you posted with all the reaction and gossip from the announcement in central London. Check back for updates and to add your comment.

1730 What have we learned today? Mick Fitz thinks State Of Play is the best handicapped but Evan Williams needs to splice open the drinks cabinet if the horse is going to be only the second Welsh-trained winner of the National. The Mullins brothers probably don’t like Phil Smith that much. Hobbsie is hopefully still friends with Twister, and David Pipe is covering his ass. Paul Nicholls suggests My Will is his first choice pick, while Jonjo has doubted Butler’s Cabin’s resolve and Charlie Egerton has a case of wind.
Much to ponder, but come April 4, 40 will line up, and one will win. That’s a certainty, as is the fact I’m off to the dry cleaners before they close. Goodnight all.

1715 “The thing I maintain about the National is that you have got to have class. A Gold Cup winner on 11st 1lb looks like a very good weight to me. He’s always jumped very well and he’d meet my Grand National expectations.”
Chris Goulding, racing editor of the Sunday Express, plumps for War Of Attrition

1710 Sorry for the delay. Went down to the bar to catch up with a couple of opinion makers. Sadly one of the country’s most lauded sports writers was clearly so overwhelmed by Paddy’s offer of five places on the National that he promptly collapsed against the table that was holding him up and my freshly acquired pint of sponsor’s product has ended up over one freshly laundered suit. Things I do for Paddy…..

1640 “I wouldn’t be at all happy. I’ve heard what Phil Smith has said but I don’t think he’s well treated and so I’m still not happy. The horse has lost form, and yet he’s handicapped on last year’s form. He could go for the Red Nose Chase or the Bobbyjo but I might just go back over hurdles with him.”
Willie Mullins, chuntering away after Snowy Morning got 11st, 2lb up from last time

1630 “I wasn’t happy with Butler’s Cabin before. He seemed to have lost his interest.”
Jonjo O’Neill, blunt and to the point

“It’s Abbeybraney for me. He has form that ties in with the best of them and he’s on a very workable weight. He’s the right age, progressive and has that little bit of a quirk, and Aintree always brings out the best in horses like that. I’m not saying he’ll trot up but he certainly looks a cracking bet each-way.”
Dave Mitchell, aka ValueScope of the Daily Mirror

1625 “I really fancied Hobbs Hill on his comeback run but I was very disappointed. I’ve taken a speculative guess and given him a wind operation. Darkness gurgled after he ran at Haydock and we’ve given him a wind operation as well. Next they’ll be operating on mine!”
Trainer Charlie Egerton getting windy in the build up

1620 “The weight looks attractive and looking at the race it could be the sensible thing to do. The owners just need persuading. We haven’t been to hard on him this year and we’re looking to the spring. It was all about today and seeing what weight he got.”
Evan Williams, trainer of State Of Play, 10st 8lb

1615 “I don’t think there will be the same amount of pressure as last year. Everyone says a horse with that much weight can’t win the National, but we’ll see.”
Donald McCain, trainer of Cloudy Lane, 11st 2lb.

1610 Interesting snippet. The last three winners of the National were all allotted 10st 6lb at this stage. That means we should all be getting on Mon Mone, Opera Mundi and Silver Birch.

“Silver Birch won the other Saturday at Tipperary. He was 100 per cent afterwards, and he’ll go straight to Aintree.”
Gordon Elliott, hoping it’s not a long way from Tipperary

1555 “Chelsea Harbour is going to run in the Hennessy on Sunday. He’s in great form. I never got the buzz at Aintree last year, that feeling that I’m going to win the National. I’m hoping it will be different this year, but he’s 8lb higher over here than he is in Ireland. I don’t understand that. The Irish handicapper is hitting him hard enough.”
Tom Mullins, less than chuffed trainer of Chelsea Harbour

1545 “We’ve purposely left My Will since the Hennessy. He will go to Wincanton on Saturday or to Cheltenham. Big Fella Thanks will go for the Racing Post Chase and then straight to Aintree. Cornish Sett went round there last year. He’s had a breathing operation since and he’ll go back there again.
Paul Nicholls outlines plans from his entries

1530 Well, that’s lunch of daringly pink “Roast Canon and Rack of Lamb” safely negotiated. Various trainers were badgered by Rishi Persad and Cornelius Lysaght into offering views on their chances over coffee. We learnt that Jonjo O’Neill, who incidentally did not want to subject Exotic Dancer to a hard race on Sunday, quite fancies the horse’s Aintree chances. He also confided that “AP will ride of JP’s. Whether it will be one of mine I don’t know.” Useful that, or what?
Phillip Hobbs, carrying a shoulder dislocated in a recent skiing tumble, was in a double-team interview with the culprit, his “Piste” mate Nigel Twiston-Davies. Hobbsie visibly winced as Twister grabbed his arm. Jovial Twister - National winners Earth Summit and Bindaree - quipped: “I’ve done something twice that Phillip can’t do.” I’d swear Hobbsie, whose What’s Up Boys was second to Bindaree, winced again.

1410 “Last year when we put the blinkers on that made the difference and I hope that will prove the case this year. Of the three who should get in, Comply would be the main one.”
David Pipe, seven entries in this year’s race

1405 “Obviously we didn’t expect to beat Denman, especially in the style that we did. We did think he’d run well enough to get second. Madison De Berlais is only eight and still improving. Yes, he’s got a lot of weight but the race seems to be suited to horses that are higher in the handicap these days, so I don’t think it’s out of the question.”
David Pipe, Grand National winning trainer

1400 “One I thought leapt off the page for me was State Of Play. King Johns Castle has got a nice weight but I think it will be difficult for Madison De Berlais who could be too high up the handicap. I think Martin Pipe will be kicking David up the backside for beating Denman and ruining their chance of winning the Grand National.”
Mick Fitzgerald, Grand National winner on Rough Quest

1335 BREAKING NEWS: Exotic Dancer misses the Irish Hennessy on Sunday. Will try to find out more.

1315 “In the last 10 years the quality of the race has advanced so far that the 1999 winner Bobbyjo would not have got into the race in any of the last seven Grand Nationals.”
Lord Daresbury, Aintree chairman

1310 “War Of Attrition was rated 171 when he was at his best, winning the Gold Cup. He’s been fairly consistent this year and is now a stone lower. If he’s anywhere near recreating his greatness he could be interesting.”
Phil Smith, again

1305 “Snowy Morning was a difficult one. I wanted to give him a pull with last year’s winner and second but I though his run after Aintree when second to Neptune Collonges at Punchestown was even better, so I was in a bit of a dilemma. This year he has not been performing as well but I have left on the same mark as King Johns Castle and he gets a 3lb pull with Comply Or Die.”
Phil Smith, BHA head of handicapping on his headache

1230 Mick Fitz has just arrived along with Nicky Henderson and Robert Waley-Cohen. Sir Peter O’Sullevan’s just come through the doors. No sign of David Pipe yet, though. We’re about to sit down to lunch, half an hour behind schedule. Catch you later.

1220 “At first glance I quite like the look of King Johns Castle but Silver Birch, if they got him back to his best and he doesn’t “bounce”, could be very well treated at the bottom end of the handicap. L’Ami looks thrown in off 10st 3lb but French breds don’t win the National - ever. The first thing I do every year is go through and cross off all the French breds.”
Tony Lewis, racing editor of the Daily Star, with an initial observation

1205 Well, that didn’t take long to work out. Exotic Dancer has 11st 10lb, Madison De Berlais 11st 8lb, and Comply Or Die is 3lb higher than last year. Take a check on Paddy’s betting. Butler’s Cabin (an attractive 10st 5lb) and Hear The Echo (an equally handy 10st 11lb) head the market at 14-1
John Motson’s just turned up so I guess we can start now. Mottie and Clare Balding are discussing the ITV missing goal from last week’s Merseyside Cup tie.

1155 To the Sheraton Piccadilly, and the news that we’re running late. Jonjo O’Neill has just arrived, but still no sign of David Pipe and Phillip Hobbs who were understood to be taking the train from the waterlogged west country. Wonder if David’s gone back for the helicopter?

0940 Good morning everyone from a dank and dreary London, where it’s currently a chilly two degrees and sleet is in the air. But never mind, we have the prospect of the Grand National weights to warm the cockles today. Ok, there’s no Denman, but on the plus side it gives Phil Smith, the handicapper, the chance to frame a proper handicap. My guess is he’ll try and get maybe 50 or 60 of the entries into the weights.
Who’ll be top weight? Probably the easiest one to answer, that - Exotic Dancer for the second year. More imponderable ones are how much will Madison De Berlais be levered up after Saturday’s win, while what chance will he give stable mate Comply Or Die of repeating last year’s success? The National is the one race in which can use discretion in framing the weights; will he ignore the horse’s two woeful runs this term?
Then there is the question of whether leading Irish hopes such as Hear The Echo and Black Apalachi will get in with under 11st, a magic marker in my book, that.
These questions, and many more, should start to be answered when some 200-plus connections and media types arrive at the Sheraton Park Lane in under two hours. See you later.

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